by Ken Briggs
August 15, 2009
Since there remains a tendency to make big trends out of scraps of evidence, let me try another tack.
Bob's Bakery has been having a tough time of it since a health store/bagel shop opened next door.
Nonetheless, in the past year he's noticed that cinnamon doughnuts are selling better. Last year he sold a total of 15,000 doughnuts (down four percent from the previous year). However he sold 10 more of the jelly variety than the year before and 30 more cinnamon doughnuts .
If Bob were to hail this as a major trend in favor of cinnamon doughnuts his bank might have second thoughts about keeping him afloat.
